Worldwide DC-DC Converter Modules and ICs Forecasts; Application, Amperage, Wattage, Isolation, Input Voltages, Output Voltages, and Converter IC Tren

Topics Covered Include:
WORLDWIDE MARKET FORECASTS (Units, dollar and pricing trends) by:
• Application (23 sub-segments)• Wattage (8 segments)• Amperage (8 segments)• Input Voltage (6 segments)• Output Voltage (6 segments) • Isolated vs. Non-isolated
Conditions in the dc-dc converter market change regularly. These latest forecasts reflect the impact of the financial crisis and resulting economic downturn. As a result, growth rates are significantly depressed in 2009, and are projected to begin recovery in 2010 with normal long-term growth resuming in 2011. Each of the 23 applications sub-segments detailed below will be impacted differently by the changing economic conditions. Those differences are detailed in this quantitative analysis.
Currently, this market is rife with dynamics that will create shifts that provide both opportunities and threats for power supply makers. In the past, this market has thrived on innovation, which provided growth for the power supply industry, but today a number of economic and business model changes provide a plethora of possibilities. Industry consolidation, both in end markets and in the dc-dc converter market, is creating a number of disruptions. This report provides in-depth insights into the dc-dc converter market with detailed quantitative and qualitative analysis.
This in-depth report includes a comprehensive, detailed analysis of the dc-dc converter market. Five-year unit sales, dollar market and average selling price forecasts for dc-dc converters will be provided by modules vs. discretes, wattage levels, amperages, input and output voltages, product type and applications. Each of these forecasts is developed, detailed and explained at the worldwide level.
Scope
This report encompasses the following areas:
1) Estimates are provided for the potential worldwide market for dc-dc converter modules in units, dollars and pricing from 2009 to 2014, by application, wattage (isolated modules only), amperage (non-isolated modules only), input voltage, and product type. In addition, dollar and pricing forecasts are provided for isolated and non-isolated products by output voltage. Estimates are given for the worldwide dc-dc converter market in dollars, by design type.2) Market forecasts for dc-dc converter module sales are given for the following five application segments (and 23 sub-segments): Communications (wireline, wireless, customer premises equipment, CATV, and Power-over-Ethernet), Computers (desktop, blade servers, type A servers, type B servers, type C servers, type D servers, network equipment, storage and special systems), Industrial (transportation, industrial automation/process control, and instrumentation), Medical, (class I, class II, class III, and non-patient care), and Military/Aerospace (commercial-off-the-shelf, and MIL SPEC). Power level forecasts include Wattage (Less than 50 Watt segments: <4w,>500W); Amperage (<1a,>1-≤3A, >3-≤5A, >5-≤10A, >10-≤20A, >20-≤50A, >50-≤100A, >100A); Input Voltage (3.3V, 5V, 12V, 24V, 48V, 270V+); Output Voltage (≤1.2V, 1.8V, 2.5V, 3.3V, 5V, >5V). In addition, forecasts are provided for Isolated vs. Non-isolated converters and Custom vs. Standard products.3) Estimates are provided for the potential worldwide market for dc-dc converter/regulator ICs in units from 2009 to 2014, by amperage (≤0.25A, >0.25-≤0.5A, >0.5-≤1A, >1-≤3A, >3-≤5A, >5-≤10A, >10A) and topology (Charge Pump, LDO, Switching Regulator). In addition, worldwide unit forecasts will be given for non-isolated dc-dc controllers and isolated dc-dc controllers.
Methodology
The data presented in this report are derived from a comprehensive study of the worldwide dc-dc converter market. The detailed forecasts are based on primary data gathered in discussions with major users of dc-dc converters in all regions of the world. All original equipment manufacturer (OEM) consumption data were gathered on a confidential basis. These consumption data were supplemented with a few discussions with major makers of dc-dc converters. It should be emphasized that the input to this study was the result of firsthand discussions with OEM users of dc-dc converters. The conversations with dc-dc converter makers were limited and secondary in importance in the preparation of this report. Of greater importance were discussions with makers of key system components, such as advanced microprocessors, which are primary drivers of key trends in the dc-dc converter market.
Primary data were obtained using “open questionnaires.” A combination of telephone and in-person interviews were conducted. In-person interviews were conducted either in the plant where the individual works or at various trade shows. The interviews conducted at trade shows were typically performed in a more informal atmosphere and were generally very successful in gathering good quantities of hard data and insights from the individuals being interviewed. All interviews conducted in the course of this research were performed on a confidential basis. The data were used in combination with the responses from all other respondents.
The primary and secondary research included all possible major application areas for dc-dc converters. The data-gathering methodology included primary research in all regions worldwide and was not limited in any way to North America. Secondary research was performed using all available published sources including, but not limited to, nonproprietary, previously performed and related work by the Darnell Group, all available trade journals, proceedings from related trade conferences, previous industry studies, annual reports, 10Ks, advertising, product literature, and so on.
All the forecasts in this report are done on Excel worksheets, using Excel formulas. A formula is an equation that performs operations on worksheet data. The use of formulas in calculations can generate decimals, which require rounding to the nearest significant figure. As a result of rounding, the sum of a set of numbers may be different from what the numbers appear to add up to. This is because when the Excel spreadsheet adds up the numbers, it takes into account the decimals that are not shown in the numbers. The reason we choose to leave the sums as they are is to retain the formulas in the spreadsheet and maintain the integrity of statistical analysis.
Multiple factors are pushing and pulling at the market for dc-dc converters. The number of power rails in a typical electronic system is increasing, new powering architectures are emerging, the overall economy is in a temporary slump, a trend exists to use more embedded powering solutions in place of dc-dc converter modules, digital power management and overall energy efficiency are becoming important to both system designers and system users, and so on. As a result of these complex dynamics, the market for dc-dc converters is moving in new directions. This report presents the most comprehensive analysis ever offered on this important and dynamic market. Detailed forecasts including unit sales, dollar sales and pricing trends are provided for a total of 23 dc-dc converter module application sub-segments. Plus extensive analysis of converter and controller ICs used in dc-dc converter applications.The Converter/Regulator IC segment is growing faster than the dc-dc converter module segment. Unit sales growth for dc-dc converter modules is projected to average 7.5% annually over the forecast period. During that same time (2009 to 2014), Converter/Regulator IC unit sales are projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.2%. The higher-current (3A and above) Converter/Regulator ICs are experiencing even higher growth rates (above 14% CAGR) as a result of the replacement of module-based solutions with embedded dc-dc converter designs in a growing number of system applications.The impact of the short-term economic downturn is seen in a somewhat slower growth rate for the period between 2009 and 2010. The “new normal” growth rate for dc-dc converter modules appears in 2011. As discussed in the following sections, the “new normal” growth rate is lower than the historic growth rate for the dc-dc converter modules market. The specific impact of the economic slowdown varies widely between the various application segments and sub-segments. In some cases, such as Medical and Military/Aerospace, there will be little or no immediate impact. Some sub-segments of the Computing and Communications market will be only mildly impacted while others will experience a significant decrease in short-term activity. The Industrial segment, along with a few sub-segments in the Computing space, is expected to be experience a higher impact from the economic slowdown. In every case, the impact will be relatively short term and longer-term growth trends will remerge by 2011.This is the first industry analysis that includes 4 sub-segments for the Medical market, 3 sub-segments for the Industrial applications and even 2 sub-segments for the Military/Aerospace area in addition to 5 sub-segments in the Communications area and 9 sub-segments for Computing applications. About 7 years ago, the Computing segment began to grow rapidly, catching up with the Communications segment in terms of dominance. Moving into the future, the picture is more complex. The Communications and Computing segments will continue to dominate. Each will account for about one-third of dollar sales throughout the period.The picture in terms of unit sales, however, is different with the Computing segment dominant at the beginning of the period and even slightly increasing its dominance by 2014. By 2014, the Computing segment will account for 45% of unit sales of dc-dc converter modules. It’s much lower (33%) share of dollar sales is a reflection of the high usage of non-isolated point-of-load converters in the Computing applications. The unit and dollar market shares of the Communications segment, about 33% and 38%, respectively, reflect the relatively high use of more costly isolated converters in these applications. Even in the case of the low-wattage (<30W) PoE sub-segment of the Communications market, there is a large consumption of isolated converters.While the Communications and Computing segments clearly dominate the market, there are significant opportunities in remaining segments, particularly in the Industrial and Military/Aerospace segments. Both of those segments have higher-than average selling prices. That is evident in the fact that the dollar market share of the Industrial segment (22%) is significantly higher than the corresponding unit sales share (14%). In the case of the Military/Aerospace, the difference between the unit share (3%) and the dollar share (10%) is over 3X. Mixing the Industrial and the Military/Aerospace segments may seem odd at first, but when it is realized that the Military/Aerospace segment consumes significant quantities of Industrial dc-dc converter modules as Commercial-off-the-Shelf (COTS) products, the overall opportunity is apparent. Finally, the Medical segment is small but stable throughout the forecast period. Unlike the ac-dc market, where medical power supplies must pass strict safety standards such as UL555, the non-isolated dc-dc converter modules that dominate this segment are essentially the same products as those used in most Communications and Computing applications. Separate forecasts are provided for Class I, Class II, Class III and Non-Patient Care Medical systems.Dc-dc module input voltage is correlated with both the Application in which the converter is employed and with the power-level of the converter. In addition, with the exception of the highest input voltage (270+ V), there is a strong correlation between sales and input voltage; the higher the input voltage, the higher the sales. That correlation breaks down for 270+ V. While it is the highest input voltage, it represents the second-lowest monetary sales. 270+ V is a “specialized” input voltage and is almost exclusively found in narrow niches within the Computing and Military/Aerospace applications segments.48 V input, on the other hand, is a commonly employed input voltage in every application segment. It is the dominant input voltage in Communications applications. It is common in the dominant Wireline and Wireless sub-segments, as well as the rapidly emerging PoE sub-segment. 48V is the second-most used input voltage in Computing, Industrial and Military/Aerospace applications. Only in the case of the relatively small Medical segment is 48V not among the most-common inputs.There is no significant correlation between Application segments and output voltages for dc-dc converter modules. There is a correlation between Isolation level and output voltage. Isolated converters tend to be used as bus converters in IBA or CCA systems and are commonly used in the traditional DPAs found in Telecommunications systems. As a result, while unit volumes tend to be lower, monetary sales are higher for converters with output voltages of at least 12V. That same correlation is evident in the ASPs of converters delivering at least 12V. The ASPs of those high output voltage designs are about 4-times higher compared with converters delivering 5V and below.The fastest-growing output voltage for isolated converters is clearly 12V. For non-isolated converters, 1.8V and <=1.2V are the two fastest-growing output voltages. Converters delivering 1.8V (which includes all voltages above 1.2V) are growing significantly faster than the <=1.2V segment. That represents a change in market dynamics and is discussed in more detail in the body of this report.Isolated converters tend to be higher-wattage devices with higher selling prices. As a result, although the unit sales levels projected for isolated and non-isolated converter modules are similar, the monetary sales of isolated designs are over 4-times higher than monetary sales of non-isolated designs. Isolated converters tend to also have higher output voltage ratings. That factor is not significant in explaining the cost differential between isolated and non-isolated designs.There is also a strong correlation between Application and isolation requirements. Communications applications including Wireline, Wireless and PoE dominate demand for isolated converters, accounting for over half the sales. Sales of non-isolated converters are clearly dominated by Computer applications which account for an even larger majority of sales. These are only some of the important, and sometimes hidden, trends that are pushing and pulling dc-dc converter demand into the future. This report will provide you with a unique, comprehensive, quantitative picture of the changing shape and direction of the global market for dc-dc converters

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